Rapid Travel Chai

The amount of business-as-usual assumptions about travel (and everything) since the 2024 US election is a sight to behold considering the country elected a governing platform loudly and explicitly saying the crazy and cruel stuff they will do.

Political and legal guardrails have been brushed away time and again. Oaths of office are violated and rendered meaningless when renewed.

It is a failure to acknowledge reality to expect everything to carry on as usual. It is a failure of imagination to not attempt to grapple with the forms that it will take.

Articles such as 6 Changes that Could Trip up Travel in 2025 that could be written any other year talking about Real ID deadlines and cruise fees in Mexico are wholly inadequate.

Post-Election Rivalry

Immediately following the November election it appeared the Christo-Fascist movement that fueled the 2016 election result was again in primacy.

By Christmas, the Techno-Fascist movement was locked in battle with them with unpredictable results to come.

Overarching is the tension between the opportunism of the grifter and the messianism of the ideologue. Where each figure in this new US regime falls on the grifter-ideologue axis will shape the future.

Predicting the Onslaught

This political moment is the capstone of a 70-year political movement. Its adherents know this is the moment to try everything on their wishlist and dare the inattentive American public to give a hoot.

Here are some possibilities of what may come as broadly relates to points travel, drawn from the political figures and appointees nominated and the ideological movements supporting them.

Be aware that there is no Constitutional right to travel.

Financial Regulation and Antitrust:

• The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will be defunded to irrelevance and ignored by financial institutions (rather than eliminated entirely)
• Antitrust enforcement will all but cease except as a political weapon or to corruptly steer companies into the ownership hands of political cronies
• Capital One’s acquisition of Discover will be approved with few to no protections for customers
• Delta Air Lines will launch a hostile takeover of Southwest Airlines that might succeed; every other US airline will look to competition-reducing M&A of domestic airlines that do not have substantial international flying (that would prompt antitrust review by other countries)
• Hotel groups will try their own M&A, though will be more hamstrung by countries with functioning antitrust review; Hyatt’s ownership structure will make it a hard target that won’t deter Choice, Sonesta, and Wyndham from seriously trying
• The board of directors of every financial institution and travel company will have instructed management to give a go at every M&A idea that previously didn’t stand a chance of regulatory approval
• Crypto rewards scams will reach new levels of audacity and impact in their collapses

Transportation:

• The Department of Transportation will maintain on paper much of its customer protections since those have viral resonance with the American public, though meaningful enforcement will all but cease
• Air Traffic Control will continue to be staffed by qualified public servants (rather than unqualified ideologues pledging loyalty oaths); modernization efforts will continue to be stuck
• Amtrak subsidies will continue because of the number of Congresspeople that use it

Services:

• Plans to eliminate or privatize the National Weather Service will quietly be shelved
• Plans to privatize and cut service levels at the United States Postal Service will move forward over the objection of Congresspeople who still want post offices in their districts

Public Health:

• Federal efforts to stem the spread and risk of bird flu will cease with impact on the price of eggs and public health
• Infectious disease outbreaks in the US from unvaccinated populations will prompt countries to impose travel limits on travelers from the US

Restriction of Movement:

• As a first in US history, travel bans for US citizens and US permanent residents to certain countries will become law (rather than policy such as the current prohibition on using a US passport to travel to North Korea)
• The Laken Riley Act’s granting of authority to all 50 state attorneys general to sue the State Department to halt the issuance of visas to travelers from targeted countries will throw international travel to and from the US into chaos, with some countries enacting reciprocal measures on US travelers
• Opposition politicians and activists will have their Trusted Traveler Program memberships revoked without explanation
• The 3-year bilateral agreement with the Russian Federation for tourist visas will be extended to 10 years with some provision for visa-free transit or visa-free short visits

Women’s Rights:

• Evangelical groups will accelerate their lawfare campaign to curtail the independent freedom of movement within the US for women
• Interstate travel by women for emergency healthcare will be impeded in several states

LGBTQ+ Rights:

• Federal LGBTQ+ protections may be eliminated by the Supreme Court within the term of the current Congress, as a crowning achievement of two justices ahead of their respective strategic (and highly privately compensated) retirements

Labor Rights:

• Legal rights, compensation, and access to union representation will continue to degrade for travel and hospitality industry workers

Climate Change and Environmental Protection:

• Travel companies will not entirely abandon environmental protection or inclusiveness policies, due to employee and customer support
• Popular wilderness locations including many previously under federal protection will be permanently despoiled for short-term resource extraction gain, outdoors enthusiasts will rush to visit them before they are gone though often be prohibited access to avoid public attention to what is being lost

Political Stunts:

• As a political stunt that grips the nation, a cruise ship, possibly Disney-themed or LGBTQ+-themed will be denied docking in Florida followed by federal efforts to deny it entry to other US states until sufficient political points have been scored to let it back in
• Travel rights of naturalized US citizens will be challenged in the courts through high-profile publicity stunt denial of entry to the US to Muslim US citizen travelers

Summary:

Even my best research and prognostication probably can’t get a quarter of the crazy in store. I’d love to be wrong about almost all of these. I fear a fair number will come to pass. Buckle up, stay alert, be civically engaged and see what we can salvage of our travel future.