Update: see the discussion in the comments with Linda Cash from Christmas Island Tourism. I had misinterpreted the twitter and facebook posts, not understanding the full sequence leading up to the main event, the spawning. I think I can be forgiven for misinterpreting these. You be the judge. Anyway, it is good to know that generally about 3-4 weeks out it should be possible to know if the dates are a go.
Once a year crabs swarm Christmas Island, far off the west coast of Australia, in their annual migration. Parks Australia releases possible dates in advance. For 2014 they had potential target dates in October, November and December. November was predicted for November 17-19.
I booked for November as only that worked in my calendar. A Delta redemption on Virgin Australia. I did the award poorly as there is no published fare between the US and Christmas Island, Delta prices as a US-Australia roundtrip to Perth, and then an Australia award from Perth to Christmas or Cocos Island. Delta’s award chart says this should be 60,000 miles (economy only plane) however for the Southwest Pacific region Delta reserves the right to charge whatever it wants and anything that crosses the ocean intra-region from Australia other than to Tasmania costs 80,000. And in 2015 a stopover will not be allowed so adding Cocos will cost even more on Delta.
Miles To Go found a much better option for Perth – Christmas Island – Cocos Island via a Singapore Airlines 30,000 mile redemption on Virgin Australia but by then there was no availability, see his Getting to Christmas Island and Cocos Islands on Points for the full roundup.
Christmas Island Tourism releases sporadic updates, though best to ping them at twitter (@CItourism) or facebook to get updated info. Parks Australia also responds to twitter (@ParksAustralia). Neither is proactive in releasing much info. They were silent as the October dates pased and as November approached I kept having to contact them for updates.
Two weeks out from the November dates they said it was extremely unlikely that November would happen as there had been few rains. Best to look at December. I had to make work plans that would conflict so went ahead and canceled November. Glad I didn’t find anything feasible for December as I woke up in Europe this morning to a tweet and facebook post from Christmas Island Tourism:
Coming from the US, even on an award, you are looking at a massive miles redemption and 3-4 days of travel each way.
Nature is unpredictable and this event is especially fickle. No one knew the November 17-19 dates would happen until November 18 when the crabs suddenly appeared.
I want so much to see this some year but don’t know if it is worth the uncertainly. Maybe for 2015 I will try to book all target dates, if possible, and keep canceling them, and only fly with either firm conviction from the the experts or fly the last target date on faith.